What to expect-December 3rd-10th 2011

03:55
Saturday
3rd of December 2011.


Autumn has officialy ended, Winter has officialy started and with it will come a nice cool blast from the north. Finally, something more seasonal feeling after a riduculously warm October/November. Despite a very cold stratosphere, positive AO, positive NAO, we are still looking at a relatively cold week ahead, especially for the northern half of the country. By monday, the 5th of December, I expect there to be snow lying accross alot of high ground in parts of Connaught,Ulster, west Munster and northern Leinster, there will probably be snow falling to lower levels in parts of the north-west of the country too. Anywhere in Connaught/Ulster, more than 30km in land and above 200M asl can expect a good covering of snow at some stage next week. *There is the possibility of snow settling at lower levels and in other parts of the country too, but that is not very likely at the moment, I will post an update if this situation changes*

Then after tuesday morning, a slightly warmer airmass will pass over the country, meaning that the risk of snow is confined to only the highest peakes in the north, then on wednesday that warmer airmass will still be present over the country and any showers will be of rain/sleet/hail. Then on thursday(the 8th) the cold air starts coming into the northwest of the country again, and thus bringing the risk of snow back to high ground in the north. At the moment it looks like friday/saturday (9th/10th) will see the introduction of an even colder airmass from the north-west, bringing sleet/snow showers to lower levels/more areas than the first cold shot on sunday/monday (4th/5th).

So in summary, it will be a cold week and will certainly be a shock to the system after such a mild November, however it will not be on a scale of anything like December 2010 and will be a much less potent cold blast in comparison. My forecast is for snow lying above 200m in the north/northwest on sunday/monday and for snow to fall to sea level in favoured locations. Then a warm up mid-week before another, stronger shot of cold air from the north on friday the 9th, this potentially bringing the risk of more widespread snowfall to the country.





Dan